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The Odds of Making It as a Writer
From: www.writerswrite.com

" Patti Thorn, the Books Editor for the Rocky Mountain News, explores a writer's odds of making it big in the book business. Her cursory research led her to believe that making it big in the book business is an unlikely proposition. Then she met author Greg Slominski at BEA in New York.

I met Slominski at the recent book convention in New York. He was there researching the best way to market his new novel, Princess and the Bean, and had come to a conclusion all wannabe authors should heed: "I think what's really clear," he said, "is that writing the book is the easy part." Selling it is another story altogether.

And he went on to prove it. The engineer from Virginia recently e-mailed me some numbers he had crunched - and while even Slominski would admit they're highly speculative, they're still fun to consider. Slominski bases his calculations on two numbers:

? 195,000 - the number of books published in 2004 (including self-published titles), as reported by industry researcher R.R. Bowker.

? 5 percent - the percentage of "successful" authors, defined as those who make a living on their books alone. Slominski found that figure on the Web site of Rick Frishman, respected media consultant and co-author of Guerilla Marketing for Writers and Guerilla Publicity.....

....Slominski then makes a few other logical leaps of faith. He assumes that a person's career lasts 20 years, that the pool of successful authors neither expands nor contracts (a reasonable, and even optimistic, assumption, given that the number of books bought each year is either flat or declining, based on which study you read) and so on.

So - drum roll - what are the odds of living off your prose? According to Slominski: 1 in 380. Or, if you tweak the numbers to allow for a range of error, 1 in 200 to 1 in 500.

Katherine Hannigan requested recycled paper for her children's book, Ida B. While no one keeps count, well-known writers, including Barbara Kingsolver, Alice Munro, Margaret Atwood and Alice Walker, are part of the trend. It reflects a growing green movement in the entertainment world that includes musicians such as U2 and Bonnie Raitt, who are packaging their CDs in recycled materials.

Walker spokeswoman Wendy Weil says the author's last two books were printed on recycled paper, and the practice is built into her contract with Random House. Less than 5% of U.S. books are printed that way, says Tyson Miller of the Green Press Initiative, a group working to interest publishers and authors.

Jerome Kramer, editor in chief of Kirkus Reviews, says the involvement of big-name writers can help increase that number. "It's always important to bear in mind what a small tip of the iceberg any author is. When an author with some cachet gets behind the issue, the reasonable assumption is that the impact would be exponential and would get the conversation going."

Environmental groups are hoping he is right. "If authors are working to push the publishers along with us, it sends a strong message," says Pam Wellner of Greenpeace, one of several groups calling for changes in publishing. Greenpeace wants book paper to be 100% recycled or, at least, a combination of recycled paper and wood pulp not harvested from old-growth or endangered forests.

The issue recently drew attention when 2.5-million-member Greenpeace asked the 300,000 on its e-mail list to request that Scholastic, the U.S. publisher of the Harry Potter series, conform to the group's standard. Scholastic heard from more than 12,500, Wellner says. Scholastic's Kyle Good says that while Potter books weren't published on recycled paper, "we absolutely don't use wood fiber from ancient forests."

"Last week I told you I'd be racewalking in a 24-hour event in Wakefield, Massachusetts, with the intention of completing a marathon, the hope of extending it to 50 kilometers, and the wistful dream of making it all the way to the 50-mile mark. Well, I'm home, and hobbling some, but it's my great pleasure to report that I logged a little over 100 kilometers?63.2 miles, to be precise?and still have a pulse. Pretty much everything hurts, but so what. I have never had a greater feeling of accomplishment, and I have to say it feels pretty good."